Reasoning is the process of drawing conclusions or inferences from available evidence or principles. Through deductive reasoning, we reason from general statements to specific conclusions. For instance, if this happens, then this will happen. Drawing general conclusions from specific evidence is known as inductive reasoning. Causal inferences are statements that explain specific facts. For example, A causes B.
Confirmation bias is the tendency to remember information that supports our belief and ignore the rest.
Heuristics are rules of thumb, or mental shortcuts that help to simplify and solve problems, though they do not guarantee a correct solution. Many types of heuristics are in use.
We use the representative heuristic to estimate the probability of one event based on how typical it is of another event.
We use the availability heuristic to make decisions based on the ease with which estimates come to mind or how available they are to our awareness.
Hill climbing is a heuristic in which each step moves the problem solver closer to the final goal.
Another heuristic is the creation of sub goals-intermediate, more manageable goals that may make it easier to reach the final goal.
Means-end analysis, a heuristic that combines hill climbing and sub goals, aims to reduce the discrepancy between the current situation and the desired goal at a number of intermediate points.
Heuristics allow us to make snap judgments quickly, but we may sacrifice accuracy in our haste to reach a decision.
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